![]() ![]() That means greater economic disruptions, lower consumption, and a more dissatisfied population at odds with the triumphalist “China defeated COVID” of the state-run media. China’s policy will fail to contain infections, lead to larger outbreaks, and require more severe lockdowns. Yet even in the developed world, the economic hangover from the pandemic will endure this year with disrupted supply chains and persistent inflation.īut China, the primary engine for global growth, will face highly transmissible COVID-19 variants without the most effective vaccines and with far fewer people protected by previous infection. That’s why the pandemic will likely become endemic for advanced industrial economies in the first half of this year. The highly transmissible Omicron variant is colliding with highly vaccinated populations that are bolstered by highly effective mRNA vaccines and COVID-19 treatments. Critically, China’s “zero COVID” policy will fail. ![]() We’re done with the pandemic, but it’s not yet done with us, and the finish line depends on where you live. ![]() That’s bad news in a year that will be dominated by the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, and a number of regional geopolitical crises. and Chinese governments lowers the odds of a big international conflict in 2022, but it leaves less potential leadership and coordination to respond to emerging crises.
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